Was in a casino in Northwest Louisiana the other day and had a rather interesting conversation with the pit crew. They were just opening the table---that can take a while. A conversation started and we talked and I mentioned that I had heard of a new craps bet called the "futures bet" or something like that. It seems that if you can roll the dice 4 times and make a separate bet of $5, you win even money. Since the 7 comes up one in 6 times it appears on the surface to be a good bet, especially for someone with a controlled throw. My general thought is that any additional bet at any table game is not as good as the original game itself---the extra bet may sound better but it usually is not. Don't know about this one. What say you Skinny, my appointed expert on things invloving math.

The stickman, a self proclaimed craps expect who is going to give lessons to the novice to make him or her a better player, said that it is a terrible bet since one is 3 rolls will be a 7???? I said that the 7 will appear 1 out of 6 rolls as there are 6 ways to roll a 7 and 36 possible combinations. He then begin to speak with authority and very loudly that no, because as you continue to roll the 7 will come up more often 1 in 3. I started to say but each roll of the dice is an independent event but he would have nothing to do with it. I came back with "push me or my wife the dice and let's play." I was tired of his rant.

None the less it was interesting if not rational thinking. By the way he gave the dice to Rose who had a short money maker using the "Big Skinny" followed by my very fine and skillful point seven out. Rose and I were the only ones at the table so she got the dice right back and she banged out a monster of 50--put her in the books Frank. As they say "the best man for the job may be a woman."

Skinny, look forward to your response.

Doc

Replies:

Posted by: ACPA on June 14, 2012, 9:32 pm

Nice shooting again, Rose.

Sorry I wasn't there.

Noah

Posted by: Skinny on June 14, 2012, 10:18 pm

The House Advantage on that wager is -3.5%.

You are correct in that there is a 1 in 6 chance of throwing a seven on any given roll. That means there is a 1/6 probability of throwing a seven and a 5/6 probability of not throwing a seven. In order to win this even money wager you have to avoid throwing a seven 4 rolls in a row.

The probability of winning the wager by not throwing a seven 4 times in a row is (5/6) X (5/6) X (5/6) X (5/6) = 0.4823

The probability of losing the wager is 1 - 0.4823 = 0.5177

The difference between the probability of winning and losing is the house advantage.

0.4823 - 0.5177 = -0.0354

Your instincts were right, it is a bad wager with a -3.5% house advantage.

As for the dealer who claims you will see a seven once every three rolls, he did not know what he was talking about. In three rolls a random roller will roll a seven 42% of the time. He will not roll a seven in three rolls 58% of the time.

Of course Alligator Rose did not seven out in 50 rolls :!: :!: Nice shooting Rose :D

Posted by: Guest on June 14, 2012, 10:34 pm

How did I miss that roll? Shucks :cry:

Posted by: Guest on June 14, 2012, 10:36 pm

Nice roll Miss Rose :)

Posted by: Diceman on June 14, 2012, 10:51 pm

Great roll, ARose! :D

Posted by: Stickman on June 14, 2012, 11:44 pm

Way to go Rose! Way to shoot!

Posted by: Timmer on June 15, 2012, 12:02 am

Great roll, Alligator Rose!

See you next week!

8-) 8-) 8-)

Posted by: brothelman on June 15, 2012, 2:34 am

There is a place in vegas that has this bet.

Posted by: Pointman on June 15, 2012, 3:55 am

B-man, does that place still offer the all/tall/small.

Just curious.