My first thought was their math is wrong. Video poker pays better for a flush than a straight. But that is 5 card draw. What effect does having community card have on the odds of flush versus straight?
Anecdotally I see a lot of flushes, not so many straights. But that might be more of a function of the way the game is played, and not the actual odds. Players are more likely to bet on a suited pair rather than any off suit straight draw, pre-flop.
Anybody ever hear of this?
Replies:
Posted by: Pit Boss on September 25, 2017, 4:07 am
I could not find anything that supports this.
Look at it this way...
You hold 8-9 of hearts.
The cards that can help you make a straight are:
5555- 6666-7777-TTTT-JJJJ-QQQQ...24 outs
But the cards that help you make a flush are:
A234567TJQK of hearts... 11 outs
In a large sample of hands where 7 cards are dealt ( like in a hand of holdem or stud) you will see 2 flushes for every three straights more or less.
That said.. counter intuitively after a flop a hand with 4 to a straight has a slightly worse chance of seeing the straight than 4 to a flush has of seeing a flush. (8 outs vs. 9)
Look at it this way...
You hold 8-9 of hearts.
The cards that can help you make a straight are:
5555- 6666-7777-TTTT-JJJJ-QQQQ...24 outs
But the cards that help you make a flush are:
A234567TJQK of hearts... 11 outs
In a large sample of hands where 7 cards are dealt ( like in a hand of holdem or stud) you will see 2 flushes for every three straights more or less.
That said.. counter intuitively after a flop a hand with 4 to a straight has a slightly worse chance of seeing the straight than 4 to a flush has of seeing a flush. (8 outs vs. 9)
Posted by: Skinny on September 25, 2017, 6:04 am
In Texas Hold'em you are playing your best 5 cards out of 7. It does not matter that there are community cards because for your hand you are still playing with 7 cards.
In 7 card poker there are 4,047,644 ways to make a flush and 6,180,020 ways to make a straight. The total number of possible 5 card hands out of 7 cards is 133,784,560.
Thus the probability of a flush is 3.03% and 4.62% for a straight. A flush beats a straight.
Perhaps they were mixing it up with Three Card Poker.
In 3 card poker there are 720 ways to make a straight and 1,096 ways to make a flush. The total number of possible 3 card hands out of 3 cards is 22,100.
Thus the probability of a straight is 3.26% and 4.96% for a flush. That is why a straight beats a flush in 3 card poker.
In 7 card poker there are 4,047,644 ways to make a flush and 6,180,020 ways to make a straight. The total number of possible 5 card hands out of 7 cards is 133,784,560.
Thus the probability of a flush is 3.03% and 4.62% for a straight. A flush beats a straight.
Perhaps they were mixing it up with Three Card Poker.
In 3 card poker there are 720 ways to make a straight and 1,096 ways to make a flush. The total number of possible 3 card hands out of 3 cards is 22,100.
Thus the probability of a straight is 3.26% and 4.96% for a flush. That is why a straight beats a flush in 3 card poker.
Posted by: sevenout on September 26, 2017, 1:50 pm
I was wondering if the nature of the game makes a difference. In 5 card draw would you be more likely to stay in with 4 to a straight vs 2-3 off suit? 2-3 suited might be more likely to stay in to see the flop.
Posted by: Skinny on September 26, 2017, 7:41 pm
I don't think that matters. But it is an interesting concept that made me think for quite a bit. Please don't make me think so hard :D.
It is more likely we don't have the proper information.
It is more likely we don't have the proper information.
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